From Tariffs to Diplomatic Tension: The Impact of Trade Restriction Measures on U.S.–China Bilateral Political Relations, 2015–2025

Abstract

This study examined from tariffs to diplomatic tension: the impact of trade restriction measures on U.S.–China bilateral political relations, 2015-2025. The problem of the study was that U.S.–China tariff escalation, despite the initial claim of an economic adjustment tool, increasingly created diplomatic tension, eroded trust, realigned global trade relations and failed to address fundamental systemic disputes over intellectual property, market access, technological competition and strategic competition. The study sought to understand the impact of tariff escalation on diplomacy, the effects of trade restrictions on global diplomatic alliances, and whether tariffs solved or exacerbated structural issues between the two powers. The study used a qualitative method. Secondary sources of data included textbooks, journal articles, government publications, newspapers, policy documents and international media. These were analysed using content analysis. The research was guided by Bargaining Theory of War, also known as James Fearon's theory, which explained how bargaining failure, lack of trust, lack of information and miscalculation could turn bargaining tools into war-making tools. The study found that the U.S. and China's tariffs escalated trade relations into diplomatic conflict. Tariffs escalated retaliation, eroded trust in negotiation, bred mistrust between the U.S. and China, and prompted states in the international system to realign their diplomatic and economic relations. The study also revealed that tariffs did not significantly address systemic challenges; they exacerbated competition by intertwining trade, technology, national security and geopolitical influence. The study found that tariffs were not economic policies but diplomatic tools that transformed bilateral U.S.-China relations and contributed to global diplomatic repositioning. The study urged continued multilateral engagement, global trade co-operation and prudent tariffs.